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Nov 3, 2012
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here's how i use the reports we constantly refer to. first i assess them for the predicted value for the year. to do that i try to discern where analysts go with their estimates after the company's reports do. they raise them, lower them, keep them the same? let's say apple is using a report that is better than not only the posted numbers that you can find on a lot of websites but also beats the high man. some call it the whisper. the high man. the analyst with the most aggressively high estimates on the street. that will always cause a raising of the numbers for the rest of the year by everyone. if it is the end of the year for the numbers after that. i use that increase in earnings per share to try to figure out the increases from real business, actual sales. did they do better. not just the changes and share changes. i look more at the revenues than the actual earnings themselves. why is that important? a company can't change the sales line except by increasing demand, producing more, gaining more customers either at the expense of o
here's how i use the reports we constantly refer to. first i assess them for the predicted value for the year. to do that i try to discern where analysts go with their estimates after the company's reports do. they raise them, lower them, keep them the same? let's say apple is using a report that is better than not only the posted numbers that you can find on a lot of websites but also beats the high man. some call it the whisper. the high man. the analyst with the most aggressively high...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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does it really do us much good. pmi reading sub 50 with qe -- >> is the government going to be outvoted this week? his comments have seen to be pinned more towards more rather than lessor not doing anything. charlie bean came out and said i can't see the point of it. >> one thing this economy isn't suffering from is too much growth. so it's not -- the fls is the weapon of choice right now. >> it's a bit of a struggle to figure out what the message is here for the uk economy. you have the employment set of figures which has been stronger than the gdp figure until the gdp figures showed a rebound in the third quarter which now the composite pmi might be fleeting and it points towards weaker growth ahead. >> you have to strip out all of the noise. for my money, we've been growing at about a quarter percent quarter on quarter so not brilliant, but not a disaster either. i think they will start to cool off here the post owe him tick layoffs and they should cast down in reality, but i've said that the last four or five mo
does it really do us much good. pmi reading sub 50 with qe -- >> is the government going to be outvoted this week? his comments have seen to be pinned more towards more rather than lessor not doing anything. charlie bean came out and said i can't see the point of it. >> one thing this economy isn't suffering from is too much growth. so it's not -- the fls is the weapon of choice right now. >> it's a bit of a struggle to figure out what the message is here for the uk economy....
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Nov 22, 2012
11/12
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joining us, chief european economist. ricar ricardo, thanks for joining us. so still a negative territory. what does this point to in terms of the economic decline for the fourth quarter? >> i think it's in line with the idea that real sgchlt dp will decline by at least 0.2%, possibly 0.3%. it will give us a negative entry point in 2013 when i expect an average growth of minus 0.2%. so still moderately recession territory. >> the german flash composite pmi 47.9, services 48, manufacturing 46.8, is germany -- we just saw the 0.2% print. is girl aermany going to have a negative contract? >> i'm looking for a contraction of minus 0.2. so only aed modest one. i expect activity will stabilize in q1 of next year, but obviously that requires a favorable external environment, meaning u.s. not going into this deep due to the fiscal cliff. and also signs of improvement in asia. >> meanwhile the french pmi says the survey there suggests a 0.7% gdp drop in quarter 4 for france. >> that seems quite large. we've seen in recent quarters numbers out of front which were highe
joining us, chief european economist. ricar ricardo, thanks for joining us. so still a negative territory. what does this point to in terms of the economic decline for the fourth quarter? >> i think it's in line with the idea that real sgchlt dp will decline by at least 0.2%, possibly 0.3%. it will give us a negative entry point in 2013 when i expect an average growth of minus 0.2%. so still moderately recession territory. >> the german flash composite pmi 47.9, services 48,...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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eunice is live for us. this is his big final speech, so reading in sort of between the lines almost is very telling. it's the legacy he's trying to cath. and what less gassy is that? >> many here believe what he is saying is significant in that it is his final farewell. he really was just reading through the work report to talks about the achievements, the economic and political achievements that the party has had. and also to outline the future challenges. one of the first challenges you had already addressed is the issue of corruption. he said the government needed to do more to root it out. >> eunice, we're having trouble with your sound. we'll get the bite rolled as soon as we can. when we hear from -- i'd like to go back to eunice if we can to stay on this issue. but there's been a lot of focus in the last couple of days as to whether china's next leaders will be reformists or conservatives and just what the influence is of some of the older party leaders. so should investors actually be bracing not fo
eunice is live for us. this is his big final speech, so reading in sort of between the lines almost is very telling. it's the legacy he's trying to cath. and what less gassy is that? >> many here believe what he is saying is significant in that it is his final farewell. he really was just reading through the work report to talks about the achievements, the economic and political achievements that the party has had. and also to outline the future challenges. one of the first challenges you...
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Nov 12, 2012
11/12
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dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of the new year. >> you yu don't? >> no, i don't. because the republicans have put themselves in a difficult position because they've actually said no way that they will endorse tax hikes. if they allow the tax increases to automatically go through on the 31st, they can then talk about tax cuts for the middle classes in january. it's cynical, but it may be what actually happens. >> so what happens on that? because there are some saying u.s. equitieses have already priced in the fiscal cliff and they look at it as a measuring of eq
dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of...